Agriculture is predicted to be the leading source of carbon emissions in the UK by 2050, according to the seventh Carbon Budget. The Climate Change Committee has argued that greater “efficiencies” in livestock production could help reach net zero targets – but this overlooks the harm intensive units cause to humans, animals and the environment.
What is the “carbon budget”?
Every five years, the UK’s Climate Change Committee publishes a “carbon budget”, which sets a legally binding cap on emissions for a five-year period that is 12 years in the future. The latest budget will be the seventh for the UK (hence it is known as CB7). It will apply to the period 2037-2042. The carbon budgets are a way for keeping the government on track with its commitment to reach net zero by 2050.
This week, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) – the UK’s independent advisory body on climate change - has published the seventh carbon budget. The Committee’s advice is based on scientific modelling of the leading causes of emissions and suggests ways for the government to keep CO2 emissions within its target.
By 2050, agriculture will be the UK’s leading source of CO2 emissions
This year’s advice on the carbon budget is wake-up call for the farming industry. By 2050, scientific modelling predicts that agriculture will be the leading cause of emissions. Although food has not featured strongly in previous carbon budgets, it is now clear that the government will have to take a strong stance – particularly on meat.
In comparison to other industries, such as transport, agriculture has been one of the slowest to decarbonise. Its progress to reducing its emissions will remain sluggish without a shift in consumer attitudes and a change in diet. Reducing the carbon footprint of the industry means reducing the number of animals producing greenhouse gases.
The CCC recommends that we will need to reduce our meat consumption by at least 35% by 2050, in order to cut agriculture’s emissions by 45% and achieve the government’s climate targets.
The problem with making “efficiencies”
However, the CCC’s advice offers a potential “way out” for factory farms that may be reluctant to reduce livestock numbers. The CCC’s advice suggests that up to 25% of emissions could be cut using measures such as feed additives to suppress methane, genetic modification, and slaughtering animals at an earlier age (the longer they live, the more emissions they produce).
On paper, the numbers add up. And the advice is clear that we need to eat less of all types of meat, and reduce the numbers of all types of livestock. However, advice on creating "efficiencies" could leave the door open for large agribusinesses to justify expanding intensive operations and intensifying farming, arguing that a more concentrated, high-yield model reduces emissions per unit of production.
Harm to animal and human health
The advice overlooks the potential harm to animals, humans and the environment that these measures could have. "Efficiencies" in livestock farming are already stretching animal welfare standards. For example, chickens reared in intensive units have been bred to put on weight very quickly. This kind of breeding lines the pockets of big business, but does not result in healthy animals. Operators usually slaughter intensively-reared chickens within six weeks.
Agribusinesses often restrict the movement of animals within a confined space, in the name of ‘efficiencies’ so that poultry and livestock can fatten up faster – resulting in a product that reaches supermarket shelves more quickly. This promises cheap, abundant meat, but the scale of factory farming comes at an ethical and environmental cost.
Cramped conditions expose animals to greater risk of infection, meaning that intensive units routinely apply antibiotics to compensate for poor hygiene. The Alliance to Save our Antibiotics has drawn attention to how this over-use is contributing to antibiotic resistance, which is undermining modern medicine’s ability to cure life-threatening infections in the human population.
A mucky business
According to a recent report by Compassion in World Farming, intensive agriculture is the main cause of river pollution incidents in England and is responsible for more pollution entering rivers than water companies. In our Muck Maps, Sustain has identified the worst areas in the country for intensive livestock pollution, and is campaigning against the expansion of US-style mega farms, which routinely violate environmental regulations.
Many people might not be aware of the extent of factory farming in the UK. Research has found that factory farms increased by 20% between 2016 and 2023. Although we pride ourselves on our high standards of animal welfare, around 85% of farm animals in the UK are kept in factory farms, spending their short lives in barns or cages.
Overseas emissions – an enabler of corporate takeover?
The government has excluded ‘imported’ emissions from the UK’s carbon budgets – i.e. those from what we buy that is produced overseas. This means that corporations that are causing environmental harm overseas (for example for soya feed for intensive livestock) – avoid their emissions being counted in our official inventory. Food and agriculture have the highest share of imported emissions (21%).
We need a just transition
Some might argue that a benefit of more “efficient” meat production can lead to cheaper food – but does this translate into food security at the household level? Arguably not, given that the increase in factory farms in recent decades has not coincided with increasing access to food for those on the lowest incomes. In fact, recent DEFRA statistics show that rates of food poverty have increased.
Few people may be aware of the human impact of working in a factory farm. As highlighted in Sustain’s recent event on achieving a just transition from intensive livestock farming, many farm workers on factory farms experience gruelling conditions. In a submission to the UK’s Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee in 2022, Focus on Labour Exploitation (FLEX) reported widespread use of insecure, seasonal migrant labour in the poultry sector, as well as trafficking, and risks of infringement of employment rights.
It’s important to acknowledge that the responsibility for change rests on the food industry, particularly large retailers. Profiteering by food businesses has led to a race to the bottom, for which farmers and farm workers (many of which are migrant workers) often pay the price. Better regulation would help address this power imbalance. As the CCC’s report suggests, farmers could and should be paid for ecological services, such as agroforestry and planting hedgerows.
Agroecology: a better way to net zero
As an alternative to the intensive model, Sustain advocates for agroecological farming methods to address the climate crisis and achieve a just transition to a more sustainable food system. In light of the CCC’s advice ahead of the carbon budget, we ask the government: What kind of food and farming system do they want in the UK?
Agroecology is nature-friendly farming that not only reduces a farm’s impact on carbon in the atmosphere, but also actively benefits the health of animals, humans and nature.
The farming industry must urgently reduce its carbon footprint – but factory farming is not the answer. We need to prioritise low-carbon farming methods that also benefit animal welfare, food resilience, biodiversity and human health.
What the government can do now
One of the limitations of the carbon budget is the big gap between ambitious reduction targets and policies to reach those targets (a point that Sustain has raised before). We need to see a well-funded higher tier Environmental Land Management scheme which has the potential to tackle climate emissions.
To be serious about preventing agribusinesses from co-opting the CCC’s advice in order to increase factory farming, we need an investment strategy for horticulture and plant-based protein, and schemes to enable a transition out of intensive livestock. This must be coupled with demand side measures like public sector procurement, advertising restrictions, and strengthening planning and regulation to prevent the spread of polluting industrial units.
Find out how to take action with Sustain's Food for the Planet campaign.
Watch our panel event on "Ensuring a Just Transition from Intensive Livestock" at the Oxford Real Farming Conference.
Cow milking facility. Credit: Official | shutterstock
Sustainable Farming Campaign: Pushing for the integration of sustainable farming into local, regional and national government policies.
