Latest carbon budget requires food and farming to be at the heart of climate action

To meet legally binding climate change commitments, agriculture must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 39% by 2040, according to the UK’s latest carbon budget, released by the Climate Change Committee (CCC). Agriculture’s share of UK emissions is set to rise dramatically over the budget period of 2038 - 2042, because while other industries are decarbonising, agricultural emissions have remained largely flat since 1990. 

Livestock reduction targets 

For the first time, the budget sets out explicit targets for reducing livestock numbers, with a 27% reduction in cattle and sheep numbers by 2040, rising to 38% by 2050. According to the report, livestock currently contributes 63% to agricultural emissions, 49% of which is emissions from enteric fermentation (ie digestion) in cattle and sheep and 14% from livestock manure. Livestock reductions are expected to deliver 32% of the emissions cuts required from agriculture by 2040 and release 68% of land needed for nature recovery and other land-based carbon sinks. Other farming practices, such as feed additives and improved livestock health, will contribute a smaller amount to reduction targets (14%). The budget does not meet the global methane pledge targets of a 30% reduction in methane by 2020, projecting a reduction of only 25% by this date. 

Dietary changes 

On the demand side, the budget sets out a 25% reduction in average consumption of all meat by 2040 and 35% by 2050, consistent with previous carbon budgets. Red meat has a steeper reduction target of 40% by 2050. For the first time, reduction targets are also set for dairy consumption - of 20% by 2035.  

A reduction in average meat consumption (particularly in red and processed meat) is projected to improve health. The scenario outlined in the budget assumes that the bulk of meat reduction will come from switching to alternative proteins rather than legumes and pulses. Such a switch is projected to reduce deaths from colon and rectum cancer, ischaemic heart disease, and type 2 diabetes. 

Land Use and Nature Recovery 

The budget sets out targets for large-scale nature restoration, with 10% of agricultural land by 2040 and 19% by 2050 switched to nature recovery and tree planting. It sets targets to re-wet 79% of upland peat and 56% of lowland peat by 2050. 

Climate justice and the global impacts of the food system 

The CCC’s remit is to set targets for reducing terrestrial emissions only, but the budget includes estimates for overseas emissions. Emissions associated with imports are similar in magnitude to territorial emissions and are therefore a significant part of the UK’s contribution to climate change. Food and agricultural products are calculated to be the single largest source of imported emissions (21%). 

Local Action

The report identifies substantial ambition to act on climate change at local government level, with 84% of councils having a climate change plan. It recommends that this ambition be harnessed more effectively, with an agreed division of responsibilities between central and local government. 

Policy Recommendations: 

The seventh carbon budget sets out 43 priority policy recommendations, including:  

• Supporting farmers to diversify: Recommended diversification routes include into non-food sectors like renewables, and nature recovery such as woodland creation and peatland restoration. No detailed proposals for diversification into food based activities are included, for example growing more low-carbon foods such vegetables, pulses, or other plant-based whole foods. Policies for increasing horticulture are largely missing from the report, as are proposals to reduce the 50% of UK cropland currently used for animal feed. Such proposals would demonstrably increase domestic self-sufficiency.

• Enabling dietary shifts: For example by replacing meat and dairy in pre-prepared meals, restaurant, and supermarket settings; and supporting more novel alternative proteins with improved taste and texture. No detailed proposals are provided for ensuring that food businesses contribute to climate targets or reduce inequality or climate vulnerability 

• Increasing choice and availability of lower carbon foods in public procurement: Such a shift would require the government to go further than its previous commitments to buy 50% of public sector food from sustainable or local sources. A number of UK local authorities have already adopted targets to align meals with net zero.

• Protecting against the risks of carbon leakage from trade in agricultural products: Such protections could help address the trend towards intensification in the UK livestock sector, particularly for chickens and pigs. Both rely on imported grain and soya for feed. The budget does not contain any other specific proposals for reducing the number of intensively-reared animals, such as an exit scheme for the operators of intensive livestock units.

Josiah Meldrum, Co-Founder, Hodmedod ltd – an award-winning grower and supplier of British grown pulses, beans and heritage grains, said:

“Farmers are an essential part of the solution to the climate emergency. Hodmedod has shown that we can grow a diverse and exciting range of nutritious, delicious, high-protein crops in the UK. With the right support we could be growing a lot more, enabling UK farmers to produce food with a low GHG footprint in biodiverse systems. But the situation for farmers is really difficult. We need the government to see horticulture and protein crops from arable as an opportunity for growth, and properly invest in the sector” 

Ruth Westcott, Climate and Nature Emergency Manager at Sustain said: 

“The latest carbon budget presents an opportunity to prioritise public health by making it easy to shift towards diets rich in plant-based foods. This is about ensuring everyone can eat well, and ensuring the government prevents the most pressing threat to our farmers and food supplies. It's time for decisionmakers to listen to the people.” 

Will White, Sustainable Farming Coordinator at Sustain, said: 

It's clear that farming needs to change to reverse nature's decline and mitigate climate change- but that doesn’t have to mean a hit to farmers’ incomes. In fact, diversified agroecological systems, with fewer but better-managed livestock and additional income from practices like woodland management, have been shown to be more profitable than the current ways we often farm in the UK. But for this transition to succeed, farmers need the right support. The CCC’s targets must be backed by bold, farmer-focused policies from the government. This means proper funding for  Environmental Land Management (ELM) schemes that pay farmers for climate mitigation strategies like peatland restoration and woodland management, alongside stronger supply chain regulation to ensure they get a fair price for the food they produce. 

Hannah Gibbs, Project Manager of Bridging the Gap at Sustain said:  

"Expanding climate friendly horticulture across the UK offers an enormous opportunity to support the growth of local economies and healthy communities with food that has a lower impact on the climate and can increase carbon storage in soils. Bridging the Gap is demonstrating that this can be done with supportive policies for growers and citizens. This government should look to revive the horticulture strategy with a focus on sustainable practice, and leverage its commitments to local and sustainable in procurement in public sector food to secure a reliable market for climate friendly fruit and veg."