Of course, all predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt, and we shouldn’t count our chlorinated chickens before they come home to roost, but here is how the House of Commons Library currently thinks it might go:
- May/June2018: EU Withdrawal Bill finishes its House of Lords stages and goes into parliamentary ping pong.
- May/June 2018: UK Parliament passes the EU Withdrawal Bill .
- October 2018: End of UK-EU negotiations on withdrawal and draft agreements published: a ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ and political declaration on ‘framework for the future relationship’.
- October/November 2018: Agreement in principle in the European Council and request for European Parliament consent. The House of Commons votes on a resolution – the ‘meaningful vote’ – on both agreements (the ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ and ‘Framework for the future relationship’). The House of Lords then votes on a motion on both agreements. European Parliament’s Constitutional Affairs Committee reports on the withdrawal agreement.
- November 2018/January 2019: The Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill introduced to the House of Commons (the vote on second reading to be a de facto second ’meaningful vote’).
- November/December 2018: European Parliament votes on the Withdrawal Agreement.
- March 2019: Withdrawal agreement concluded by Council acting by a super qualified majority (20 of EU27).
- March 2019: Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill passed (assuming Bill must be passed before exit to provide the necessary legal framework for transition/implementation period). Withdrawal Agreement ratified by UK in accordance with the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010.
- 29 March 2019: The UK is expected to leave the EU.
- 30 March 2019: Transition/implementation period begins.
- December 2020: EU wants transition period to end.
Read the House of Commons briefing: Brexit Timeline: events leading to the UK’s exit from the European Union
Access more technical Brexit reports from the House of Commons Library